The Floridan Aquifer has dropped to about 95% below average levels, and Mandarin residents face continued one-day-per-week watering limits with no end date set.

Clay Coarsey, director of the Division of Water Supply Planning and Assessment at the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD), told Action News Jax on Friday, Aug. 28, that the aquifer is roughly 95% below average. The aquifer supplies about 90% of the water residents use for drinking, bathing and lawn irrigation.

"We need about three feet of rainfall over the next three months to get out of these drought conditions," Coarsey said.

That target is unrealistic, according to Action News Jax First Alert Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh. He said the wet season has been sporadic and that three feet of rain is not feasible over the next few months, even with above-average rainfall.

Why rain isn't enough

Recent storms have not solved the problem. Coarsey said heat and sunlight evaporate much of the rainfall before it can seep into the ground, and plants pull additional moisture from the soil. The SJRWMD calls this process evapotranspiration.

The district's own numbers illustrate the gap. In July 2026, an average of 5.17 inches of water was lost to evapotranspiration, according to an Aug. 7 SJRWMD report. With 6.84 inches of rainfall that month, only a sliver remained to recharge groundwater.

Districtwide, July rainfall averaged 5.34 inches, 1.50 inches below the monthly norm, according to the district's Aug. 11 hydrologic conditions report. Annual rainfall stood at 51.01 inches, more than 9 inches below the 12-month average. Sixteen of the district's 18 counties remained below average, with Baker County recording a deficit topping 20 inches.

Groundwater levels districtwide sat in the 15th percentile for July, a reading the district classifies as low range.

What Mandarin residents need to know

Duval County, which includes Mandarin, remains under the SJRWMD's Phase III Extreme Water Shortage declaration, according to the district's watering restrictions page. The mandatory rules:

• Landscape irrigation is limited to one day per week.
• Watering is prohibited between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. daily.
• Decorative fountains and other aesthetic water uses are prohibited.

An average home uses almost 1,000 gallons of water per irrigation cycle, according to the SJRWMD. The district urged residents to verify that irrigation timers are set to their designated watering day and allowable hours, and to check systems for leaks.

Coarsey said in a separate district statement the same day that recent rainfall has helped and small improvements are appearing in some locations, but that recovery is not immediate. Many parts of the district still face significant rainfall deficits, he said, especially in central Florida where most aquifer recharge occurs.

The district said it will continue evaluating conditions to determine when restrictions can be modified. No timeline or threshold for lifting Phase III has been announced.

Residents can report water waste or check their designated watering day on the district's watering restrictions page.