More than half of Duval County homeowners who bought in 2022 or 2023 and later resold lost money after transaction costs. That includes Mandarin.

Analysis finds Duval among hardest-hit counties in state

A News4Jax report published Monday, Sept. 7, detailed an analysis by Jacksonville-area brokerage Momentum Realty that matched more than 2.3 million Florida home sales using closed multiple listing service (MLS) records dating to 2001. The study factored in an estimated 8% in buying and selling costs and calls 2023 the worst year to buy a home in Florida since 2006.

In Duval County, 52.9% of those recent buyers lost money on resale. That puts the county in the middle of a painful stretch across northeast Florida.

St. Johns County posted the highest loss rate in the state at 70.6%. Flagler County followed at 70.3%, Clay County at 55.3% and Nassau County at 54.2%.

"2023 was probably the worst year to purchase a house in these counties," Jon Brooks, market analyst and co-founder of Momentum Realty, told News4Jax.

Brooks said 2020 was the safest year to buy, according to the data. Conditions worsened each year after that, peaking with 2023. The only year that performed worse in the full dataset was 2006, when 85.8% of buyers who later resold took a loss.

New construction squeezes existing-home sellers on price

One factor hitting Duval County sellers: competition from builders. A separate Momentum Realty analysis reported by News4Jax on Aug. 13 found the price-per-square-foot gap between new and existing homes in northeast Florida has nearly vanished. In 2011, new homes sold for about 39% more per square foot. By 2024, that premium had fallen to 2.4%. In 2025, it was 0.3%. So far in 2026, new homes are selling for slightly less per square foot than existing homes.

New construction's share of northeast Florida sales climbed from about 13% in 2021 to 27% in 2024, the highest level in 25 years of data, according to Brooks' analysis.

Builders are offering incentives such as interest-rate buydowns and price cuts to move inventory, Brooks said. That makes it harder for owners who bought existing homes near the market's peak to sell without a loss.

Brooks said Momentum Realty fields calls from homeowners who purchased in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and are now "underwater," owing more than they would net from a sale after costs.

Analysis excludes homeowners who haven't sold yet

Not every buyer lost money. The analysis measures only properties that have already been resold. Homeowners who bought near the peak and have not yet sold are not counted, and the longer they stay, the more time the market has to recover.

Still, Brooks warned that more price pressure could be ahead in areas with heavy building activity. "We could see prices actually come down further moving forward now that the ratios have flipped," he said in an Aug. 13 News4Jax report.

Homeowners can review the full Momentum Realty dataset, which covers purchase-year cohorts from 2004 through 2026 and is current as of Aug. 29.