A strengthening El Niño is forecast to bring a wetter, stormier winter to Jacksonville, with higher risks of flooding and severe thunderstorms.

The El Niño pattern that emerged in June has suppressed the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season but is forecast to flip Florida's weather script this winter, as Jacksonville Today first reported Sept. 22. Andrew Wulfeck, a meteorologist with the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, said he has never seen an El Niño forecast this strong.

"We're trading out the dry conditions for more wet conditions, stormier conditions, likely when we turn the calendar year," Wulfeck said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter at more than 90%. The agency said there is a 75% chance the event will exceed the strength of every El Niño recorded since 1950. The pattern is rated moderate but intensifying.

Tornado and flood risks rise across Florida

The National Weather Service notes that the El Niño tornado signal is strongest in Central and South Florida, where tornado counts roughly double in El Niño years. North Florida's signal is less pronounced. Still, the agency says the region averages 10 to 15 tornado events per year during winter, with severe weather season running from late December through spring.

Spectrum Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay told Jacksonville Today that every significant tornado to strike the Florida peninsula occurred during an El Niño. The deadliest example: a Feb. 22-23, 1998, outbreak in Central Florida that killed 42 people, according to a National Weather Service survey.

River flooding also climbs during strong El Niño phases. The National Weather Service reports an average of 23.3 flood events per year during El Niño, compared with 4.9 during neutral years.

Wetter winter could ease Florida's drought

The wetter winter could bring some good news. Florida has been in a severe drought since late 2025, and the Southwest Florida Water Management District recorded below-average rainfall across its 16 counties in Southwest Florida during June, July, August and September.

The News-Press reported Aug. 26 that the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook shows the Southeast is more likely to see above-average rain this winter. The Farmers' Almanac's 2026-27 forecast also calls for a wetter-than-normal season across the region.

How Jacksonville residents can prepare

The city of Jacksonville's 2026-27 Preparedness Guide is available at JaxReady.com. Residents can also text ALERTJAX to 888-777 to receive Duval County emergency updates.